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November 21, 2018 at 10:32 am #49097
By David Post . . . In a posting here on the Volokh Conspiracy last week (“Is a Categorical Denial of Bail for Sex Offenders Constitutional?”), Paul C
[See the full post at: Sex offenders: To bail or not to bail]
November 24, 2018 at 12:59 pm #49187
The amicus brief is simply based on erroneous assumptions or interpretations of recidivism rates for sex offenders. How do we counter this? Somehow the ignorance must not be allowed to continue. Specifically:
(A) the “risk of recidivism posed by sex offenders is ‘frightening and high.’” 538 U.S. 84, 103 (2003)
Hasn’t the “frightening and high” comment in dicta been examined and found to have been based on a non-peer-reviewed article in Psychology Today?
(B) When “sex offenders reenter society, they are much more likely than any other type of offender to be rearrested for a new rape or sexual assault.” McKune v. Lile, 536 U.S. 24, 32 (2002)
Quite likely true, but that is a misinterpretation of the data. I’ve read the data indicate the ratio is about 4:1, i.e. one point something vs. 5.3%. A McKune type claim is probably true for any genre of crime. Car jackers are more likely to jack a car than persons who committed other crimes. Also, the term “sex offender” includes persons who did not commit a rape or sexual assault. The juxtaposition of the terms implies that ALL sex offenders are are likely to commit rape and sexual assault.
(C) see also United States v. Kebodeaux, 570 U.S. 387, 395–96 (2013) (“recidivism rates among sex offenders are higher than the average for other types of criminals”).
Huh? I thought sexual recidivism rates were somewhere below 10%. The Kebodeaux decision itself uses the DOJ figure of 5.3%. The overall recidivism rate is around 43%. This comprises sexual recidivism, other types of offenses and technical violations of probation. Some studies show overall recidivism is exacerbated by registration, which increases homelessness and unemployment.
November 27, 2018 at 6:47 pm #49407
Remember Youngblood, Ms. O’Connor? Yawner? Whole state of Arizona should be ashamed of that one.