Reply To: New York Times: “Vanishingly” little evidence of high re-offense rate



I would like to see a study performed that studies the general public’s propensity to be accused, arrested and convicted of a sex crime separated by age. Considering that over 95% of new sex crimes are performed by someone not on the registry, I think this number is significant. I would also like to see the current studies on recidivism of former sex offenders measure “offense-free” time periods for recidivism data. Currently, when the time is extended on the studies, the recidivism data includes those who have been convicted of two or more offenses therefore corrupting any data about first time convicts. After both studies have been conducted, I would like to see a comparison of the general public versus the recidivism rate of a first time offender after certain time periods. I think it would be important to know when those numbers either match or come close to matching.

I’ve seen some studies that include bits and pieces of this data, but it has never been compared in a scientific study as I am suggesting. From the data I’ve read though, it appears that a first time offender’s chance at recidivism matches a general public person’s chances of committing a sex crime after about 7-8 years of remaining offense free. If my assumption is verified, it would give us a new leg to stand on.

While I don’t think that a compromise in our fight is something we want, it may end up being necessary, although I hope not. The compromise this could bring is that we could bring the benefit of the doubt to the lawmakers and state that a first time offender is, by all intensive purposes, reformed after remaining offense free for ten years. This could help us at the very least fight lifetime restrictions and reduce them to no more than ten years.