Andy Hudak III
I want to Start by saying that I Am a fan of NARSOL, appreciate your mission, and often pass on your information to clients, other professionals, friends, and family.
In order to continue to gain credibility, I think it’s important that You be careful when you use recidivism data. Particularly, in the 3 postings You use, you are mixing up ANNUAL recidivism rates, five-year recidivism rates, etc.
It IS ABSOLUTELY IMPORTANT THAT WE ACCURATELY REPORT RECIDIVISM RATES.
Also, since exposing is a misdemeanor, (in most states unless you get caught multiple times), it is its own unique area of sex offense, which incidentally, has much higher rates of recidivism than almost all other Types of sex offenders.
You guys do a great job of explaining to people that the term “sex offender”, in and of itself, is not very helpful BECAUSE there is such a wide range of Types of sex offenders And offenses – Romeo and Juliet, child porn with contact victims, child poured without contact victims, etc.
I would strongly suggest that you think in terms of educating the public regarding the overall low rate of Sexual offending recidivism, but also, in order to maintain credibility, help The public understand that:
– MOST sex offenders are low risk to reoffend. (One exception IS exposer’s, though it should be pointed out, that they do much less damage to victims!)
– We have had the ability for some time now to state recidivism rates for EACH level of risk.
– Overall, Sex offenders have WAY lower re-offense rates than any other category of crime, BUT THERE ARE A MINORITY OF EXCEPTIONS! (Hi risk sex offenders, for instance, Reoffend somewhere between 45-60% over 15 or 20 years. )
– Finally, we also know (from the scientific research literature on recidivism) That a Group of moderate risk offenders,, At 7 years in the community, The remainder of moderate risk sex offenders, at that point, Are Equal to low risk, and high risk sex offenders that have not re-offended and have been in the community for 10-12 years, Also have re-offense rates the equivalent to low risk people.
Bottom line: We should care about long-term risks, And be clear that when we are talking about 5-10% recidivism rates, we are talking ONLY about low risk sex offenders.
Thanks again for all the work that you guys do!